A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
