Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
